Home / Daily News / By the Book For Origin Energy Limited ($ORG.AX):: Shareholder Yiled of 0.013212 Put into Perspective

 

The Shareholder Yield of Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is 0.013212. The Shareholder Yield is a way that investors can see how much money shareholders are receiving from a company through a combination of dividends, share repurchases and debt reduction. This percentage is calculated by adding the dividend yield plus the percentage of shares repurchased.  Dividends are a common way that companies distribute cash to their shareholders.  Similarly, cash repurchases and a reduction of debt can increase the shareholder value, too. 

One of the most important factors that investors look at when examining stocks is the consistency of earnings results. When the quarterly earnings report is released, investors watch closely to see if the company is performing up to expectations. A company that fails to meet projections may see large price swings following the report. Of course one bad quarter may not signal trouble, but a company that continually disappoints during earnings season may need to be further examined to help figure out what is going on. Experienced investors will closely watch stock price movements before and after earnings events in order to gain a truer understanding of how the market is reacting to the reports. 

Altman Z Score

Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) has an Altman Z score of 1.711818. The Z-Score for predicting bankruptcy was published in 1968 by Edward I. Altman, who was assistant professor of finance at New York University at that time. It measures the financial health of a company based on a set of income and balance sheet values. The Altman Z-Score predicts the probability that a firm will go bankrupt within 2 years. In its initial test, the Altman Z-Score was found to be 72% accurate in predicting bankruptcy two years before the event. In a series of subsequent tests, the model was found to be approximately 80%–90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year before the event

Atman built the model by applying the statistical method of discriminant analysis to a dataset of publicly held manufacturers. Since then he has published new versions based on other datasets for private manufacturing (Z’-Score), non-manufacturing, service companies and companies in emerging markets. (Z”-Score)

Please also note that the original dataset used was quite small and consisted of only 66 firms of which half filed for bankruptcy. All companies were manufacturers and small firms (total assets less than $1m) were removed.

EBITDA/EV

Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) EBITDA/EV currently stands at 0.066391. This multiple is similar to Earnings Yield, but here we use Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) as Nominator). By doing this, we can compare companies with a different capital structure and capital expenditures. You can think of it as the taking all the revenue and subtracting the costs that solely go into running the business. The downside of EBITDA is that it can be abused by companies declaring as “one-off” costs things that should really be considered normal costs. We use the EBITDA of the last 12 months.

Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow. The FCF Yield of Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is 0.053457. Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure. This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends. The 5 Year FCF Yield of Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is 0.047991. Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

VC3

Value Composite Three (VC3) is another adaptation of O’Shaughnessy’s value composite but here he combines the factors used in VC1 with buyback yield. This factor is interesting for investors who’re looking for stocks with the best value characteristics, but are indifferent to whether these companies pay a dividend.

VC3 is the combination of the following factors:

Price-to-Book
Price-to-Earnings
Price-to-Sales
EBITDA/EV
Price-to-Cash flow
Buyback Yield

As with the VC1 and VC2, companies are put into groups from 1 to 100 for each ratio and the individual scores are summed up. This total score is then put into groups again from 1 to 100. 1 is cheap, 100 is expensive.

The scorecard also displays variants of the VC3 where the score is calculated for the selected company compared to peer companies in the same industry, industry group or sector.

Please note that we use Book-to-Market instead of P/B since it allows a more accurate sorting compared to P/B. Stocks with a high B/M show up at the top of the list, stocks with negative B/M are at the bottom of the list. For the same reason we use Earnings-to-Price instead of Price-to-Earnings and Cash flow-to-price instead instead of Price-to-cash flow.

Also important is that we always make sure that companies with the same score get added to the same percentile. For stock universes where the number of stocks is less than 100, we make sure that the stocks are still allocated to percentiles from 0 to 100 instead of 0 to the total number of stocks. This is particularly relevant for the industry, industry group or sector variants where if additional filters are used, the number of stocks often drops below 100.

Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) has a VC3 of 9.

Share volatility in the stock market is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is 33.1631.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is 25.9164.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 24.1914.

Earnings to Price (Yield), Earnings Yield, Earnings Yield Five Year

The Earnings to Price yield of Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is 0.094374. This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price. This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance. Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company. The Earnings Yield for Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is 0.051371. Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company. Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value. The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is 0.050943.

Individual investors often strive to create a solid strategy before trying to take on the market. Setting up realistic, attainable goals, may be a good place for the amateur to start. There are many different approaches that the investor can take when getting into the stock market. Some investors will try to follow strategies that have worked for others in the past. Sometimes this will work, and sometimes it will not. Markets and economic landscapes are constantly changing. A strategy that worked yesterday may not work again tomorrow. Investors who put in the time to do the necessary homework may find themselves much better off when the market decides to rear its ugly head at some point down the road.  

 
Share this page